I closed my pre-Local and European election Sunday Independent column saying that those election results “…may not be a definitive predictor of who will or will not form the government, but they will be the best indicator of it we will see before the general election posters start appearing later this year.”

The results vindicated my analysis in more ways that I could have imagined. The massive decline in the expected support of the main opposition, shocked them and surprised the rest of us. Here in Limerick, their mayoral candidate came fifth, over 10,000 votes behind the eventual winner, Mayor John Moran.

I don’t plan to offer them any analysis of where they went wrong. Not that I’d expect them to welcome, or to heed, it. But I will make two quick observations.

First, the results prove that voters do not want leaders whose policy approach is: “The answer is yes. Now, what was the question?”

Second, you do not ease legitimate public concerns about your policy flip flops by accelerating and expanding those flip flips, and then attacking those who dare to ask questions about them.

Not that this means the public is infatuated with the current government. The three government parties lost almost 70 Cllrs between them. They also saw their combined support fall by just under 9%, with the Green party absorbing the brunt of this decline.

So… where does this leave us as we approach the summer break?

As you will know from reading my most recent offerings here, I am strongly of the opinion that the general election should take place towards the end of October. I still cannot see any benefit for anyone, opposition, government, or voters, for delaying until the early part of 2025.

Most of the main items on the government’s legislative agenda are now complete, with those few remaining items ready to be sorted out when the Dáil and Seanad return in September.

It is far better to have an orderly and managed process of finalising these matters and proceeding with an October election than to wait until the end of February 2025.

As I have stated here before, delaying until 2025 effectively means an all-out pre-election campaign from early November to polling day. A sixteen-week campaign fought across the depths of winter. I wouldn’t wish upon my worst enemy. Inflicting that on the electorate would be unforgivable.

But what I think should happen may be a world away from what will happen. Both the Taoiseach and Tánaiste have been absolutely definitive in ruling out a 2024 general election, insisting that there will be no ‘snap election’. The last general election was in early February 2020, so an October election would no more be a ‘snap’ election than the locals and euros were midterm ones.

Neither the Tánaiste nor the Taoiseach have allowed themselves any room for manoeuvre. An Taoiseach told journalists a few weeks ago that “We’re going to have an election next year.”

As political answers go, it is both clear and unambiguous. It cannot be misunderstood. I commend his directness, but it is an unwise strategy. Voters would not punish a government that had served over four and a half years in office for deciding, after the Summer, to opt for an October general election.

Perhaps they would, after a day or two, forgive one that made the same sensible decision after months of insisting it was going to go the full five years, but it would not be an auspicious start to a campaign.

Though I believe it would be best to have an election in October, it does seem like the three-party leaders plan to continue into early 2025. If this is the case, then I strongly urge the government… and nowadays that means the cabinet and more especially the three government party leaders… to use that time to tackle the nationwide law and order crisis. That means addressing the recruitment and retention crisis in An Garda Síochana – and also in our Defence Forces.

Over the past year I offered several proposals on how to address these. So too have many of my Fianna Fáil back bench colleagues. Happily, some have been acted upon, but as every Council and MEP candidate who stood on a doorstep from Caherdavin to Cabra will know, we need to do a great deal more.

If we use the coming weeks and months to act seriously and effectively on law and order, then maybe I can still be persuaded that it is a good idea to wait until 2025. I am open to persuasion, but I won’t be holding my breath.