I am not one of those politicians who rushes out to challenge the accuracy or conduct of opinion polling whenever the results don’t match my expectations.
Most of the recent polls, particularly the Ireland Thinks series in this newspaper, have broadly matched the trends I see on the ground. Of course, these national polls cannot fully measure the various local impacts. Fewer people self-identify as being of this party or that party than before. That’s to be expect.
What might surprise folks, however, is that some who strongly self-identify as being for one party, vote No 1 for someone else. Without naming names, I know several strongly committed Fine Gael and Labour supporters across Limerick who, in the secrecy of the ballot box, give me their Number 1 vote… and have done for several elections. No poll, no matter how well it is framed can allow for this.
So why am I talking about polling today? While most polls are close to where voters are in terms of party support, I strongly believe those polls are missing the public mood when it comes to the issues… and one issue in particular, crime.
Based on my case load and the many hundreds of conversations I have with people across my constituency, crime and anti-social behaviour is a major issue. This is not just a Limerick phenomenon. Speaking with my colleagues from across the country, representing both urban and rural constituencies, I know they are finding the same thing.
Crime and anti-social behaviour is impacting all our communities and the chronic shortage of Gardaí is making a bad situation much worse. I have been saying this in these columns and in the Dáil for several years, now.
This is not about people being afraid of crime or afraid of anti-social behaviour, it is about them experiencing it. Street crime is directly affecting how people live their lives and run their businesses.
This is not an issue of “perceptions,” as some would have us believe, it is the lived reality for too many people.
It is about shops and cafés that have been in business for decades closing up because they cannot continue to trade safely. It is about people, not just pensioners, living behind double and trebled bolted doors from early in the evening because of what they see on their streets.
The problem is that far too many people within Irish society think that they can get away with whatever they want. We have a growing culture of impunity. Our street crime crisis is not born out of social deprivation or poverty. The only ones who are struggling are the victims, not the perpetrators.
This government and its successor, whatever its political hue, must get to grips with this situation now. There are a range of things we can do to turn around the situation.
First, we dramatically increase Garda strength, well above the 15,000-figure set almost a decade ago. That figure is no longer realistic. Worse still, actual strength is well below it. Overworked and stressed gardaí are demoralised. They need more than our good words; they need our support and the resources.
Second, we immediately re-invigorate the Garda Reserve across the country. Successive Justice ministers, including the current one, have ignored the Reserve since February 2015 when it granted powers to deal with public order offences. With political will and leadership, we could increase Garda Reserve numbers quickly and return a strong and visible uniformed presence to our communities.
Third, I proposed two years ago that we make the parents of juveniles convicted of serious anti-social behaviour pay compensation to the victims, where it can be shown that willful parental negligence was a key factor. Let’s do this now
And in the case of those who are above the age of criminal responsibility, courts should make “attachment of earnings orders” on salary or welfare payments to enable restitution and compensation to victims. Our prisons are close to overcrowded with too many people incarcerated for non-payment of fines. Better to deduct the money, by attaching it, at source and waste less Garda time and energy chasing them down.
Maybe the next poll will show that crime is a major concern for voters. But, even if it doesn’t, I have no doubt that it will emerge as a massive campaign issue whenever the next election is held.